FIG: How low can it go?

Figma (FIG) has established itself as the leading collaborative interface design tool, revolutionizing how teams build UI/UX experiences in the cloud. Despite its dominant market position and widespread adoption by designers, developers and companies worldwide, its performance since its 2025 public debut has mirrored the volatility of other high-growth tech stocks. Since its peak in the summer of 2025, the stock has entered a steep correction phase, prompting many to ask how low it can truly go before finding a sustainable bottom. By examining the historical drawdowns of previous high-profile IPOs like Rivian, Coinbase, Snowflake, and others we can gain perspective on the potential depth and duration of FIG's current decline and identify where it might eventually stabilize.

FIG compared to drawdowns of previous, popular IPOs

Since reaching its highs in mid-2025, FIG has experienced a sharp -80% drawdown. This significant decline reflects a cooling of initial hype and a re-evaluation of its valuation in a changing market environment. This is a common pattern observed in many other stocks after their initial public launch. By contrasting FIG to its peers, which have experienced similar IPOs in the previous years, we can gain a better understanding of where FIG might be heading and how long it could potentially take until a reasonable bottom can be theorized.

Rivian (RIVN) is an American electric vehicle manufacturer specializing in electric adventure vehicles like trucks and SUVs. It serves as a cautionary indication for high-growth IPOs, as the stock dropped 95% over a two-year period. This extreme correction highlights the volatility that can follow a high initial valuation.

Coinbase (COIN) operates a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, providing infrastructure for the crypto economy. It saw its market value plummet by 92% within 1.5 years after its public debut. The rapid descent illustrates how quickly sentiment can shift in emerging tech and financial sectors.

Unity (U) provides a widely-used platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 3D content, particularly in the gaming industry. Unity's stock performance shows a prolonged decline, dropping 93% over the course of 3.5 years. This suggests that some stocks can take several years to bottom after their initial public offering and experience a significant drawdown during that process.

Airbnb (ABNB) operates an online marketplace for lodging, primarily homestays for vacation rentals, and tourism activities. Airbnb (ABNB) fared relatively better than some of the other stocks, dropping 62% over two years. This represents a more moderate, yet still substantial, correction compared to the 80%+ drops seen elsewhere.

DoorDash (DASH) is a technology company that connects consumers with their favorite local businesses through food delivery and logistics services. DoorDash (DASH) experienced an 84% decline over a two-year period. This correction is in line with previous drawdowns and durations.

Coursera (COUR) is an online learning platform that offers massive open online courses, specializations, and degrees from top universities and companies. Coursera (COUR) underwent a long-term devaluation, dropping 90% over the course of four years. This very long period of decline and deep drawdown shows that some corrections can take many years until a final bottom is formed. COUR is an example where caution should be exercised and deeper analysis should be performed before making any substantial investment into it, whether it is a lump sum or a DCA approach.

DigitalOcean (DOCN) is a cloud infrastructure provider that offers on-demand cloud computing services to developers and small businesses. DigitalOcean (DOCN) saw its share price fall by 85% over 2.5 years. Like previous IPOs in this analysis, it experienced a typical drawdown of 80%+ over the course of over 2 years.

Snowflake (SNOW) provides a cloud-based data storage and analytics service, often referred to as "data-as-a-service." Snowflake (SNOW) experienced a 75% drop over 3.5 years. While SNOW's drawdown was slightly better, though still above 70%, it shows that even more moderate drawdowns can occur over a long period of time which in SNOW's case was 3.5 years.

Conclusion

Analyzing FIG's current -80% drawdown in the context of other popular IPOs suggests that while FIG has experienced a significant correction which is in line with the upper end of drawdowns, it could still go on for a while longer. Many previous stocks after an IPO have seen their valuations drop by 80% to 95% before finding a bottom. While the correction is roughly in line with what most other companies have experienced after an IPO in this analysis, it could still drop further, as some have seen corrections as high as 95%. Also, FIG's decline has only been going on for about half a year at the time of writing. Other stocks have seen their correction going on for 1.5 to 4 years. This suggests that FIG's correction could still go on for a few years longer, though not guaranteed. Lastly, the general market sentiment for risk assets has to be taken into account as well. Should market sentiment deteriorate leading to a market-wide, prolonged correction, this could impact the path FIG takes significantly.

Pitfalls

Keep in mind that this is a dubious speculation that may or may not occur. FIG might be more bullish than the analysis of the article or more bearish depending on how market sentiment evolves in the future. Indicators do not tell the future with absolute certainty. They are useful to reason about the future, and it is important to balance both bullish and bearish scenarios to avoid bias as best as possible. Lastly, all indicators are prone to failure every now and then. They tend to work well for a while, but eventually, some indicators fail, while others do not at a given time. As more data comes in, the analysis will evolve to incorporate new moves, invalidate a previous hypothesis or gain evidence for a previous idea.