NICKEL: Future Outlook

NICKEL is drawing attention as its monthly price action approaches key resistance zones, with a visible gap above the 21,000 USD area and technical structures that resemble past impulsive advances seen in other assets such as PALL, often followed by periods of consolidation. Fibonacci levels appear broadly aligned with these resistance areas, suggesting potential upside targets while also indicating where momentum could slow. In relative terms, NICKEL’s performance versus other assets remains mixed: long-standing downtrends against GOLD and silver persist, although momentum indicators against GOLD are showing early stabilization potentially, while the ratio versus the S&P 500 (NICKEL/SPX) has already broken down in 2025 and now sits at levels where a recovery toward a resistance level could indicate a potentially bullish future vs SPX. Together, these dynamics position NICKEL at an inflection point, where absolute price behavior and cross-asset comparisons may soon provide clearer signals on direction and sustainability.

NICKEL price action on the monthly timeframe

NICKEL is currently testing significant resistance levels as it moves higher. A notable gap exists above the 21,000 USD mark, which often acts as a magnet for price action. If the momentum continues, filling this gap could be the next step in its upward trajectory.

The current technical structure of NICKEL mirrors the impulsive advances seen in other assets like PALL, BABA, and HSI. These moves are typically characterized by a sharp rally followed by a cool-off or consolidation periods. NICKEL seems to be in the early stages of such a move if it follows the analogues of PALL and BABA. If it continues to follow similar patterns, it could potentially provide a path higher as PALL and BABA have already experienced it.

Fibonacci levels are broadly aligned with the horizontal resistance zones. This confluence indicates where a potential move higher could go before entering another cool-off period.

NICKEL vs other assets

The NICKEL/GOLD ratio has been in a persistent downtrend for a few decades already, indicating NICKEL's underperformance relative to GOLD over the longterm and it continues to put in new lows. The RSI has reached its lowest point since the 90s, though it has recently shown signs of recovery. Moreover, the SRSI has started a move higher, indicating that NICKEL could be preparing a move higher at least in terms of a mean reversion relative to GOLD. Keep in mind that this ratio can outperform GOLD while GOLD is dropping, because NICKEL is dropping less.

In 2025, NICKEL broke down significantly against the SPX. Currently, the ratio sits at a level where a recovery toward the previous breakdown point is a possibility. Such a move would represent a substantial gain for NICKEL relative to the equity market, potentially offering a 50% outperformance if it reaches that resistance. Keep in mind that this ratio could outperform SPX while SPX is dropping, because NICKEL is dropping less and thus, sending NICKEL/SPX higher.

Unlike the situation with GOLD, NICKEL's performance against silver remains weak. The NICKEL/SILVER ratio continues its downward trend with no immediate signs of a reversal. Both the RSI and SRSI are flat or declining, suggesting that silver remains the stronger asset in this pairing for the time being.

Conclusion

NICKEL's price action and comparison to other assets paint a mixed image. On its own, the monthly chart shows a promising setup with a potential move toward the 21,000 USD gap, supported by patterns seen in other successful impulsive rallies or a potential cool-off period first. However, its performance relative to other assets tells a more nuanced story. While it shows signs of life and potential mean reversion against GOLD and SPX, it remains decisively weak against SILVER. Moreover, stable market conditions are important for NICKEL to continue going higher as a market wide correction could invalidate the ideas presented in this analysis.

Pitfalls

Keep in mind that this is a dubious speculation that may or may not occur. NICKEL might be more bullish than the analysis of the article or more bearish depending on how market sentiment evolves in the future. Indicators do not tell the future with absolute certainty. They are useful to reason about the future, and it is important to balance both bullish and bearish scenarios to avoid bias as best as possible. Lastly, all indicators are prone to failure every now and then. They tend to work well for a while, but eventually, some indicators fail, while others do not at a given time. As more data comes in, the analysis will evolve to incorporate new moves, invalidate a previous hypothesis or gain evidence for a previous idea.